Table of contents for "Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2006"
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2006 Predictions

Top 10 Trends for 2006

#01 - Energy issues take a front burner on the world stage.

#02 - The Internet's democratization effect expands to traditional media.

#03 - Marketing expenditures and activities continue to shift to the Internet.

#04 - China's continued growth significantly affects world commerce.

#05 - Outsourcing continues to expand to other sectors of the economy.

#06 - Services continues to play a bigger role in Western economies.

#07 - Usage and proliferation of mobile commerce expands.

#08 - Adoption of VOIP continues.

#09 - Employer/employee relationships strengthen for the first time in years.

#10 - Security and privacy issues raise their heads again.

Fun Predictions on the Economy:

Other Fun Predictions

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Predictability in Previous Years

• 2005: 85% accurate
  
• 2004: 80% accurate
  
• 2003: 75% accurate
  
• 2002: 40% accurate
  
• 2001: 95% accurate
  
• 2000: 70% accurate
  
• 1999: 70% accurate
  
• 1998: 65% accurate

2002 Predictions

Top 10 Trends for 2002:

#01 - Increased Security and Safety Focus: Security through smart chips and retinal identification will find increased acceptance with the call for a national (and ultimately a worldwide) Smart Card based identification system will gain significant momentum.(correct)

#02 - Revenue (not at the Expense of Margin) will be the Primary Driver: In addition to traditional and Internet-based revenue, the metrics of Web-assisted and Web-shifted revenue will come into vogue. (partial)

#03 - Companies will Start Dropping the "E": The holistic corporation will realize that business is business, regardless of the medium used to conduct it. E-Commerce implementations will focus on delivering the total end-to-end solution. (partial)

#04 - Late 2002 Recovery: After the overall corporate purge of excess and obsolete inventory in mid-to-late 2001, companies will start reinvesting in the goods and services it needs to survive and create profitable entities. This, coupled with the money spent on the US war efforts, will bring a slight US recovery in late Q3, 2002. (no)

#05 - Major Industry Consolidation: With the capital markets remaining difficult to raise money, there'll be a continued consolidation in the business world as both traditional and dot.com companies continue to be acquired or run out of money and go out of business. (correct)

#06 - Customer Experience will Become Vogue: Although companies have talked about the customer being king, this philosophy is paid only lip service in a majority of companies. In 2002, we'll see the position of CCEO "Chief Customer Experience Officer" starts to proliferate among companies. The lifetime value of the customer will be a key focus of the CCEO. (no)

#07 - Functions vs. Features: The user community will pay more attention to the functions that products deliver as opposed to the features (bells and whistles) they have. Web services are well positioned to help make this trend a reality. (correct)

#08 - Collaborative Commerce Grows and Meets P2P: Companies will continue to grow their value Web relationships and strive to increase efficiency among the participants. Peer to peer technology and processes find their way in the B2B space helping improve the efficiency of many collaborative efforts. Additionally, there will be an increased focus on sharing useful "confidential" data among participants of the value Web. (no)

#09 - "Blended Solutions" is the Major New Buzzphrase: Making the transition from the on-line learning space, blended solutions become vogue as product and service companies deliver blended (integrated on-line and on-ground) solutions to their customers. (no)

#10 - "Transparent Commerce" is Another New Buzzphrase: Also being bantered around as u-commerce (Ubiquitous Commerce), this is where commerce occurs automatically without getting in the way of our lives. Automatic bridge tolls and stop light violations, as well as product recommendations from trusted sources that automatically turn into sales, are good examples of what we'll see. (no)

BONUS TREND #1:

Prediction of key technology/classes of applications that will experience growth:

The Killer Apps: Blended Customer Service Solutions, P2P for both Consumers and Businesses (Collaborative Commerce), Self-Service for both Consumers and Businesses

Other Areas of Growth: Security, Instant Messaging Video Conferencing, Smart Card Identification, IP Telephony Location-based Commerce, Mobile Applications, Collaborative Commerce, 1x1 Marketing Tied to Metrics, Pay-Per-View Content

BONUS TREND #2:

The Value Equation: Companies will start using the Value Equation to ensure they are creating value today and will continue to do so well into the future (okay, this one is self-promotion).

2001 Predictions

#01 - The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The tried and true basics of business will be back – to remind us of the old-fashioned principles that still seem to work, even in this new Internet-enabled world. Profitability, revenues and proven processes will be key. (Correct)

#02 - The New Economic Environment: Although we are already mired in the New Economy, we are just at the beginning of the changes, as brick and mortar companies race to be successful online, and dot.coms try to dethrone established companies’ brands. There will be more consolidation, hybrids, partnering, and new business models that will shift the mix and balance of power. (Correct)

#03 - A New Internet-enabled World: In the not too distant future, the use of the Internet will be routine, rather like electricity, as the comfort level with the technology and this method of doing business evolves. Not only will more of our work and personal lives be connected because of the evolving technology infrastructure, but more integrated as well. Processes and functions that we use in the workplace will make their way into our homes. A total Internet-enabled world where every IP appliance can coordinate an exchange transaction with or without a human guide, is right around the corner. (Partially correct)

#04 - Customers Rule: With the Internet, customers have gained considerable power to choose with whom they will do business, where and when. The need for intense customer focus and exemplary customer service will continue into the future, as customers remain central to the growth of e-commerce. (Partially correct)

#05 - Better, Faster and Maybe Cheaper: With continued learning and experimentation, companies will build better products and services by utilizing the multiple capabilities of their own companies and also their partners. Price may still be a determinant in customers’ buying decisions, but value received is becoming more important than price by itself. New ways to conduct business enabled by technology will lead to many new opportunities for companies, with improved choices for customers and more efficient payment mechanisms for the exchange of value between parties. (Correct)

#06 - Business Models and Value Webs: Just when you thought things were settling down with business models, be prepared for more changes. Improvements in efficiency of the supply chain and logistics, disintermediation and continuing complex are part of the future. (Correct)

#07 - New Standards and Rules Create Opportunity: There has been much controversy and discussion about privacy and security and how it affects e-commerce. Quite often, new regulations and laws can be perceived as just more bureaucracy that gets in the way of doing business. However, as security issues are mitigated and standards are commonly deployed for security and privacy, new opportunities will actually be created for business. (Correct)

#08 - Evolving Infrastructure and Tools: Many advances have been made in integrating front office and back office systems both in a company and via the ASP/BSP model. Technologies that improve speed, collaboration or integration of processes will be a requirement for survival and growth in the future. (Correct)

#09 - The New Face of Marketing: As companies continue to wrestle with issues about online and offline branding, we are entering a new era of personalization. Marketing will be faced with implementing new approaches in the Internet-enabled world. (Correct)

#10 - New Dimensions for Growth and Evolution: As today’s leaders make decisions about tomorrow’s growth, there are many factors at work in this new environment that will make a huge impact. Technologies such as wireless and portable computing will provide more ways to access the Internet, and require companies to provide content accordingly. The world marketplace means greater demand for products and services, and companies need to figure out how to build businesses across geographic boundaries. We are faced with much growth in the next few years. Whether it happens slowly or quickly, we all need to be armed with the lessons we have learned so far to be better prepared to meet all the challenges of the brave new world. (Correct)

BONUS TREND:

Peer-to-Peer Commerce Takes Off: Ebay is remarkably successful and first coined the concept of C-C commerce. Regardless of whether Napster actually survives, it's existence will have resulted in the morphing of the music industry. Napster also helped demonstrate that peer-to-peer commerce may be the most widely participated business model on the Internet. Having passed legislation of digital signatures, with SET (Secure Electronic Transactions) individuals can swap digital files, and create an encrypted transaction contract; non-repudiation of the event between the buyer and seller. Individuals will begin to conduct peer-to-peer commerce using digital cash, with new and existing players trying to be the financial intermediary. (Correct - with a vengence)

2000 Predictions

#01 - B-to-B Growth Continues its Dramatic Pace: B-to-B growth will continue at its dramatic 1999 pace, leading to more liquidity in the B-to-B exchanges and inter-organizational virtual enterprises. Part of this growth will stem from the B-to-B practitioners borrowing successful techniques already proven in the B-to-C marketplace. (Correct)

#02 - M&A Activity Escalates: Private, public, traditional and newly created corporate venture capital funds will increase the pace of mergers and acquisitions. We will continue to see the "dot.com's" snapping up physical real estate. In addition to technology and market share as reasons for acquisition, companies will be acquired for their employee base (technical and managerial). (Correct)

#03 - Privacy Concerns Increase: Privacy concerns will increase in the U.S. as the public becomes more aware of how their Web site activity can be tracked, profiled, and merged with data collected from multiple off-line sources to reveal very "personal" information about themselves. (Correct - with a vengence)

#04 - Dynamic Pricing Reaches Most Industries: Dynamic pricing will extend into numerous industries via the name-your-own-price model (such as Priceline) and the Auction (such as Ebay) model. (Didn't significantly materialize)

#05 - ASP's Capabilities Expand: ASP's (Application Service Providers) will continue to increase the quantity and quality of their customers and the robustness of their service offerings. The ASP model, as it becomes more pervasive, will lead to a dramatic change in how the software industry produces and distributes software. (Correct)

#06 - Wireless Applications Become More Common: Wireless Internet access will have rapid adoption in the U.S., possibly catching up to Europe. Wireless technology will be incorporated into standard business operations, will be used to deliver in-store competitive pricing, and remote e-mail anywhere, contributing to a steep rise in online usage. (First part, silly prediction, second part happened)

#07 - Free Extends into B-to-B Space: "Free" continues as a B-to-C (business-to-consumer) e-commerce model and extends into the B-to-B (business-to-business) world. (Didn't significantly materialize)

#08 - Customer-Centric Corporate Restructuring: For the Global 2000 companies that adapt and integrate the Internet into their businesses, a customer-centric view will start reshaping their culture and infrastructure. (Only partially correct)

#09 - Executive Inability to Morph: The majority of Global 2000 corporations will recognize that e-commerce is a reality they must embrace, but the majority of top executives will be unable to "morph" their corporations into holistic Internet-enabled entities. (Correct - few exceptions)

#10 - Expanded ECM Deployment: Brick-and-mortar companies will continue to deploy e-commerce efforts that integrate with their core business. After Y2K preparation and cleanup, e-commerce will hit the business world like a tidal wave. Year 2000 will see a significant increase in the number of traditional companies that extend their brands onto the Web and meld on and off-line marketing activities. (Correct)

BONUS TREND:

Electronic Wallet Acceptance:

Major in-roads will be made in the acceptance of electronic wallets. Driven by the success (and partial frustration) of the 1999 Christmas shopping season, consumers will be looking for an easier, quicker shopping experience. (Didn't happen)

1999 Predictions

#01 - While consumer-based security concerns continue to decrease, privacy concerns will increase leading companies for focus on the non-monetary forms of currency (time, attention & trust) (Partial, security concerns decreased while privacy concerns increased, however not enough attention was placed on the non-monetary forms of currency)

#02 - Companies will begin to recognize that the value-added activity begins after the customer hits 'submit order' and that Customer service will become the point of differentiation (Correct)

#03 - Movement of EC to a service industry rather than purely product or technology driven...Outsourcing EC functions becomes very popular (Correct)

#04 - More top-level executives will focus on and be responsible for EC (Not yet, where some companies are talking the talk only a small percent are walking the walk)

#05 - Dramatic increase in access speeds and appliances (mobile devices, ATMs, home/office appliances, etc.) connecting to the Web and integrated into EC applications (Correct)

#06 - Continue growth of affinity groups (e.g. Chemdex, Metalsite, Rosettanet, etc.) (Correct - with a vengence)

#07 - Continued price transparency with auctions and other real-time pricing vehicles...will see prices for scarce items increase and prices for commodities decrease (Correct)

#08 - SHOPPING: a) Wallets and "impulse buying" will take root, b) Price-driven buying: looking for the best deals will be a big play and c) Special EC function keys will appear on key boards (Partial: While price-driven buy occured, wallets didn't stick and special EC functions didn't appear on key boards)

#09 - Will see a non US-based player dominating some EC space (Didn't materialize yet)

#10 - 1999 and 2000 will be the years of "show me the money", essentially companies will continue to demonstrate success with EC while small to medium enterprises (SME's) flock to the net (Correct)

1998 Predictions

#01 - Other forms of currency take focus [Time, Attention, Trust] (Wrong, not as much focus in '98 as expected)

#02 - Consumer acceptance of SSL security (Correct)

#03 - Login/password authentication will start going away (Wrong, not yet)

#04 - XML will start to replace HTML (Partially, most vendors have XML implementations, slower than expected)

#05 - Too many solutions, particularly point solutions, will be consolidation, but... (Correct)

#06 - Continued price transparency (Correct)

#07 - "True" eCommerce implementations will be driven from the top-down (Correct)

#08 - eCommerce implementations will focus on meeting business needs (Mostly, still a ways to go)

#09 - eCommerce implementations will be more than pretty pages (Correct)

#10 - The definition of eCommerce will expand (Mostly, still a ways to go)